Statistical Modelling 4 (2004), 145159
A general multilevel multistate competing risks
model for event history data, with an application
to a study of contraceptive use dynamics
Fiona Steele
Centre for Multilevel Modelling, Institute of Education,
University of London,
20 Bedford Way,
London WC1H 0AL,
UK.
eMail: f.steele@ioe.ac.uk
Harvey Goldstein
Centre for Multilevel Modelling, Institute of Education,
University of London,
London,
UK.
William Browne
Mathematical Sciences,
University of Nottingham,
University Park, Nottingham,
UK.
Abstract:
We propose a general discrete time model for multilevel
event history data. The model is developed for the analysis
of longitudinal repeated episodes within individuals where
there are multiple states and multiple types of event
(competing risks) which may vary across states. The
different transitions are modelled jointly to allow for
correlation across transitions in unobserved individual risk
factors. Implementation of the methodology using existing
multilevel models for discrete response data is described.
The model is applied in an analysis of contraceptive use
dynamics in Indonesia where transitions from
two states, contraceptive use and nonuse, are of interest.
A distinction is made between two ways in
which an episode of contraceptive use may end: a transition
to nonuse or a switch to another method.
Before adjusting for covariate effects, there is a strong
negative residual correlation between the hazards
of a transition from use to nonuse and from nonuse to use;
this correlation is due to a tendency for
short periods of nonuse after a birth to be followed by long
periods of using the same contraceptive method.
Keywords:
competing risks; contraceptive use; event history analysis;
multilevel model; multistate model
Downloads:
Data,
MLWin code, and an appendix on data preparation in zipped archive
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