Statistical Modelling 22 (6) (2022), 509–526

Bayesian adjustment for measurement error in an offset variable in a Poisson regression model

Kangjie Zhang,
Everest Clinical Research,
Markham,
Ontario,
Canada.

Juxin Liu,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics,
University of Saskatchewan,
Saskatoon,
Saskatchewan,
Canada.
e-mail: liu@math.usask.ca

Yang Liu,
Upstart Network Inc.,
San Carlos,
California,
USA.

Peng Zhang,
Department of Statistics,
Zhejiang University,
Hangzhou,
China.

Raymond J. Carroll,
Department of Statistics,
Texas A&M University,
College Station,
Texas,
USA.
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences,
University of Technology,
Sydney,
Broadway,
NSW,
Australia.

Abstract:

Fatal car crashes are the leading cause of death among teenagers in the USA. The Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programme is one effective policy for reducing the number of teen fatal car crashes. Our study focuses on the number of fatal car crashes in Michigan during 1990–2004 excluding 1997, when the GDL started. We use Poisson regression with spatially dependent random effects to model the county level teen car crash counts. We develop a measurement error model to account for the fact that the total teenage population in the county level is used as a proxy for the teenage driver population. To the best of our knowledge, there is no existing literature that considers adjustment for measurement error in an offset variable. Furthermore, limited work has addressed the measurement errors in the context of spatial data. In our modelling, a Berkson measurement error model with spatial random effects is applied to adjust for the error-prone offset variable in a Bayesian paradigm. The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is implemented in rstan. To assess the consequence of adjusting for measurement error, we compared two models with and without adjustment for measurement error. We found the effect of a time indicator becomes less significant with the measurement-error adjustment. It leads to our conclusion that the reduced number of teen drivers can help explain, to some extent, the effectiveness of GDL.

Keywords:

Conditional autoregressive (CAR) models, Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL), measurement error, Offset variable, spatial random effects

Downloads:

R (stan) Code and data in zipped archive .

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