Statistical Modelling 18 (5-6) (2018), 411–435
The efficacy of league formats in ranking teams
Jan Lasek
Interdisciplinary PhD Studies Program,
Institute of Computer Science,
Polish Academy of Sciences,
Warsaw,
Poland.
e-mail: janek.lasek@gmail.com
Marek Gagolewski
Warsaw University of Technology,
Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science,
Warsaw
Poland.
and
Systems Research Institute,
Polish Academy of Sciences,
Warsaw,
Poland.
Abstract:
The efficacy of different league formats in ranking teams according to their true latent strength is analysed. To this end, a new approach for estimating attacking and defensive strengths based on the Poisson regression for modelling match outcomes is proposed. Various performance metrics are estimated reflecting the agreement between latent teams’ strength parameters and their final rank in the league table. The tournament designs studied here are used in the majority of European top-tier association football competitions. Based on numerical experiments, it turns out that a two-stage league format comprising of the three round-robin tournament together with an extra single round-robin is the most efficacious setting. In particular, it is the most accurate in selecting the best team as the winner of the league. Its efficacy can be enhanced by setting the number of points allocated for a win to two (instead of three that is currently in effect in association football).
Keywords:
association football; league formats; rankings; rating systems; simulation; tournament design.
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Example data and code in
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