Statistical Modelling 13 (3) (2013), 253274
Adaptive change-point mixed models applied to data on outpatient tetracycline use in Europe
Girma Minalu
Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BIOSTAT),
Hasselt University,
Belgium
Marc Aerts
Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BIOSTAT),
Hasselt University,
Belgium
eMail: marc.aerts@uhasselt.be
Samuel Coenen
Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
Centre for General Practice,
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Ann Verspoten
Laboratory of Medical Microbiology,
Vaccine & Infectious Diseases Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Arno Muller
Laboratory of Medical Microbiology,
Vaccine & Infectious Diseases Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Niels Adriaenssens
Laboratory of Medical Microbiology,
Vaccine & Infectious Diseases Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Philippe Beutels
Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID),
Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination,
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Geert Molenberghs
Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BIOSTAT),
Catholic University of Leuven,
Belgium
Herman Goosens
Laboratory of Medical Microbiology,
Vaccine & Infectious Diseases Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Niel Hens
Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases (CHERMID),
Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination,
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO),
University of Antwerp,
Belgium
Abstract:
In this paper, we propose a change-point mixed model to assess the change in the trend of outpatient antibiotic use in a Bayesian framework, where the change-points are unknown parameters of the model. Model selection using DIC indicates that the data supports the model with a country-specific change-point. The location of the change-points may be related to points in time where public health strategies aiming at increasing the awareness of the public to a more rational use of antibiotics or targeting to reduce overconsumption of antibiotics were initiated.
Keywords:
amplitude; antibiotic use; change-point model; non-linear model; phase shift; seasonal variation
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